Every progression system builds its bets from a base unit, and when that unit is a coin whose price moves, the money on the table changes with each spin even before the wheel does. A player who sets the unit as 0.001 bitcoin has a fixed coin stake and a floating money stake. A player who sets it as 50 dollars and converts at each bet has the reverse. Which one you pick decides how much the price can affect the system.
The three common progressions do not respond to a price move in the same way, and the difference comes from how far each one moves its stake away from the base unit. Ranked below from least exposed to most exposed, with the unit fixed in coin and the price assumed to fall six per cent over the session. The house edge at crypto roulette stays at 2.7 per cent on every spin throughout, so none of the three beats the wheel. The ranking is about how much the price adds to the loss.
- D’Alembert. Add one unit after a loss, remove one after a win. Stakes stay within a band of four or five units, so no single bet holds much coin, and a price move on any one spin changes the money at risk by a small amount. The cost is speed. D’Alembert takes many spins to claw back a run, and a falling price has all of those spins to reduce the value of the units it recovers. A block that ends level in coins ends six per cent down in money, the whole price move and nothing more.
- Fibonacci. Each stake is the sum of the previous two, so a losing run climbs 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 units. Stakes grow more slowly than martingale, which keeps coin amounts small for longer, but a run takes more spins to close because a win only steps back two places. The two effects pull against each other. Over a typical run, they roughly cancel, and the player ends in coins where Fibonacci said they would, with the money value down by the price change alone.
- Martingale. Double after every loss. A run of five losses puts thirty-two units on the table at once, and that is where the price does its work. If the coin has fallen when the big bet lands, the recovery bet is worth less in money than the losses it is meant to cover, because those losses were placed at higher prices. The system recovers exactly one unit of coin per run. Every point the price has fallen since the run began comes straight off the value of that unit, and the largest stakes are the ones most affected.
Two fixes exist, and both work for all three systems. Setting the unit in fiat and converting to coin at the moment of each bet keeps every step worth the same money and moves the price risk to the balance rather than the progression. Swapping to a stablecoin before the session removes the price from the table altogether. Neither changes the edge. They change whether the loss came from the wheel, the price, or both.
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